Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new Issues and Leaders index model

The Issues and Leaders model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.8%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.8%. This value is 2.5 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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