Clout Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Clout Research (R) poll results
Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 9 to July 13. A total of 701 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Oregon. That is, the PollyVote is 6.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.