Results of a new poll conducted by OpinionWorks were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from Maryland for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30. A total of 754 likely voters responded. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.7 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is significant.