New Hampshire: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in latest NBC-WSJ-Marist poll
By NBC-WSJ-Marist published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
New Hampshire is traditionally a purple state, where the two major political parties have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome here is considered crucial in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who replied, 42.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 6 to September 8 among 737 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often include substantial biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of New Hampshire polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.8%. Compared to her numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 4.2 percentage points higher. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.8 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.
