Nevada: Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest NBC-WSJ-Marist poll
NBC-WSJ-Marist published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Historically, Nevada has been a battleground state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions in this state are of particular interest.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who responded, 45.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 6 to September 8, among a random sample of 627 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't focus too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 51.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Nevada. Compared to her numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.