PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 61.0% of participants would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 15 to April 17, among a random sample of 879 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-3.3 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.5% for Clinton and 31.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.5 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the combined PollyVote is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is significant.