NBC-WSJ-Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who responded, 41.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 6 to September 8 among 649 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.8 points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't focus too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Trump is currently at 51.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Arizona. In comparison to his numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Trump's poll average is 0.5 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.7 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.