Morning Consult released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Morning Consult poll results
The results show that 44.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via Internet from September 6 to September 8, among a random sample of 1710 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump. On September 5 Clinton received 51.2% in the Morning Consult poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 52.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.4 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Morning Consult poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.2 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.