CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
In Florida, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 44.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 7 to September 9. A total of 1193 likely voters responded. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump. For comparison: Only 47.1% was gained by Clinton in the CBS News/YouGov poll on September 8, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 50.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Florida. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Florida. This means that the PollyVote is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is insignificant.