Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead
The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 86.4% for Clinton, and 13.6% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.