Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 50.0% of interviewees will give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% will give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5, among a random sample of 1000 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. This means that the PollyVote is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is negligible.