Elway released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Elway poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of participants are going to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 9 to August 13 with 500 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-4.5 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they often include substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. This means that Polly's forecast is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is significant.