Today, Polly concludes that Clinton will obtain 52.8% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.2% for Trump.
Looking at the components
The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who will be the next POTUS: Five anticipate a victory for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win.
In contrast to Polly's prediction, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.2%.
Expectation polls predict a vote share of 52.3% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.8% of the vote.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 8.9 percentage points.
In comparison to the predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is particularly low with 52.0% in aggregated polls. Since 2008 John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency they had not gained so few votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, aggregated polls expected a vote share of 50.2% for Democratic candidate Barack Obama.