Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees are going to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from January 18 to January 20, among a random sample of 800 registered voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump. On September 11 Clinton received 57.8% in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll and Trump received only 42.2%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. This means that Polly's forecast is 2.8 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is insignificant.