Results of a new poll administered by Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Minnesota for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between April 25 and April 27. The sample size was 800 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-3.5 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they can include large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.