Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 1000 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.0 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is negligible.