Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new 538 (polls-plus) model

The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.5%. In comparison, on September 10 Trump was predicted to garner 48.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, as they often incorporate substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, one should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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