California: 26 points lead for Clinton in new LA Times/USC poll
By LA Times/USC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
LA Times/USC poll results
Of those who replied, 56.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from May 19 to May 31 with 1500 registered voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, you should not be too confident the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 63.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in California. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the LA Times/USC poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in California. This means that the combined PollyVote is 3.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is significant.
