PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from West Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 30.0% of interviewees said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 57.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between April 29 and May 1. The sample size was 1201 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 34.5% for Clinton and 65.5% for Trump. In the most recent PPP (D) poll on September 9 Clinton received 65.5%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 62.1% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.4 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.