Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of participants will give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 600 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump. On September 9 Clinton received only 35.6% in the Emerson poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. This means that the PollyVote is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.