Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Clout Research (R) poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees indicated that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 9 to July 13, among a random sample of 701 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Oregon. That is, Polly's forecast is 6.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.