New Issues and Leaders index model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck

The Issues and Leaders model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.7%.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models often contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.8% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.5 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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