NBC-WSJ-Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who answered the question, 57.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from March 4 to March 10, among a random sample of 1968 registered voters.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump. To compare: Only 36.0% was obtained by Clinton in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll on September 9, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Illinois. This means that Polly's prediction is 5.8 points below her polling numbers.