Maryland: 33 points lead for Clinton in latest PPP (D) poll
PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who responded, 61.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 15 to April 17, among a random sample of 879 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 68.5% for Clinton and 31.5% for Trump. In the latest PPP (D) poll on September 9 Clinton obtained only 31.5%, while Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.0% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's prediction is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.