Western NE University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Western NE University poll results
Of those who replied, 62.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from April 1 to April 10 among 497 registered voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 70.5% for Clinton and 29.6% for Trump. In the most recent Western NE University poll on September 9 Clinton received only 29.6%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.8% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.