Kentucky: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 35.5% for Clinton, and 64.5% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on September 9, Clinton was predicted to gain 64.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.3% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.