Holbrook model: Clinton is in the lead
The Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.5%.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they may include substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.8%. This value is 2.7 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Holbrook model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.