Elway poll in Washington: Trump trails by a substantial margin
Results of a new poll conducted by Elway were distributed. The poll asked participants from Washington for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Elway poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of participants are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 24.0% are going to give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 9 to August 13 among 500 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump. On September 9 Clinton received only 35.8% in the Elway poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. Hence, Polly's prediction is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.