Elway poll in Washington: Trump trails by a substantial margin

Results of a new poll conducted by Elway were distributed. The poll asked participants from Washington for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

According to the results, 43.0% of participants are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 24.0% are going to give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from August 9 to August 13 among 500 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump. On September 9 Clinton received only 35.8% in the Elway poll and Trump received only 0.0%.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. Hence, Polly's prediction is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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