DeSart model in Vermont: Clinton is in the lead
The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 66.5% for Clinton, and 33.5% for Trump in Vermont. In comparison, on September 9, Clinton was predicted to collect only 33.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.