DeSart model: Clinton with very clear lead in Hawaii
The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 70.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, while Trump will win 29.9%. In comparison, on September 9 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 66.6% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.