Clinton leads in Maryland by 29 points in new OpinionWorks poll
By OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 18 to August 30 with 754 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump. On September 9 Clinton received only 31.7% in the OpinionWorks poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 69.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. Relative to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's forecast is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.
