Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome
Polly the parrot currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is currently leading with 50.2%.
Citizen forecasts predict a vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.8% of the vote.
In comparison to the predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is particularly low with 49.8% in econometric models. Since 2004 George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency they had not gained so few votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, econometric models expected a vote share of 45.9% for Democratic candidate John Kerry.