WTHR/Howey PoliticsWTHR 13 released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
WTHR/Howey PoliticsWTHR 13 poll results
Of those who answered the question, 36.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 6 to September 8. A total of 600 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 45.6% for Clinton and 54.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Indiana polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 55.0%. In comparison to his numbers in the WTHR/Howey PoliticsWTHR 13 poll Trump's poll average is 0.6 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 54.9% of the two-party vote in Indiana. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.5 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is negligible.