Results of a new poll carried out by Elway were released. The poll asked interviewees from Washington for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Elway poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13. A total of 500 registered voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump. To compare: Only 35.8% was obtained by Clinton in the Elway poll on September 8, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. Hence, Polly's prediction is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.