Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Clout Research (R) poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 9 to July 13. A total of 701 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Oregon. That is, the PollyVote is 6.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.