OpinionWorks poll in Maryland: Trump trails by 29 points
OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
The results show that 54.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30 among 754 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they may include substantial biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.1%. This value is 0.7 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the combined PollyVote is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.