New Issues and Leaders index model: Trump and Clinton in a virtual tie
The Issues and Leaders model is captured in the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models often include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, you should consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results compared to other index models
If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.8%. This value is 2.5 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.