Results of a new poll conducted by PPP (D) were released. The poll asked interviewees from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 61.0% of interviewees intend to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between April 15 and April 17. The sample size was 879 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-3.3 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 68.5% for Clinton and 31.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the combined PollyVote is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.