Latest 538 (polls-plus) model: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat
The 538 (polls-plus) model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 51.6% for Clinton, and 48.4% for Trump. In comparison, on September 8 Trump was still predicted to win 48.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 49.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.
The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.