Results of a new poll carried out by NBC-WSJ-Marist were published. The poll asked participants from Illinois for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
According to the results, 57.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% are going to cast a ballot for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from March 4 to March 10 among 1968 registered voters.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump. On September 8 Clinton obtained only 36.0% in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Illinois. That is, the combined PollyVote is 5.8 points below her polling numbers.