Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 600 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump. On September 8 Clinton obtained only 35.6% in the Emerson poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is negligible.