Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% will cast a ballot for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 1000 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-3.0 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump. On September 9 Clinton received only 54.6% in the Emerson poll and Trump received 45.5%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, Polly's prediction is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is insignificant.