Clinton ahead, according to latest PollyVote forecast
Polly today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump.
A look at the components
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now in the lead by 50.4%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are Citizen forecasts with a vote share of 52.1% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.6% of the vote.
Trump lost 9.7 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous week, no other component has shown a shift this large.
With 52.1% in expectation polls the vote share for the Democrats is noticeably high in comparison to previous election years. This is the highest value at that time in the campaign since 1996. At that time, Citizen forecasts expected a vote share of 54.9% for Democratic candidate.