Wisconsin: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Marquette poll
Results of a new poll conducted by Marquette were circulated. The poll asked participants from Wisconsin for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Marquette poll results
According to the results, 45.0% of participants indicated that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 25 to August 28 with 650 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-5.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump. For comparison: 56.0% was obtained by Clinton in the Marquette poll on April 27, for Trump this result was only 44.1%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Wisconsin polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.1%. This value is 1.4 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Marquette poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 2.7 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is negligible.