West Virginia: Trump holds big lead in recent MetroNews poll

MetroNews published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from West Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Of those who answered the question, 31.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 49.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from August 9 to August 28. A total of 386 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 38.8% for Clinton and 61.3% for Trump.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 62.1% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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