MetroNews published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from West Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
MetroNews poll results
Of those who answered the question, 31.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 49.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 9 to August 28. A total of 386 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 38.8% for Clinton and 61.3% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 62.1% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.