West Virginia: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead
The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 46.0% of the two-party vote share in West Virginia, whereas Trump will win 54.0%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win 54.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can contain large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 8.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in West Virginia.