Results of a new poll administered by Elway were announced. The poll asked interviewees from Washington for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Elway poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 24.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 9 and August 13. The sample size was 500 registered voters. The error margin is +/-4.5 percentage points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Washington. This means that the PollyVote is 6.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.