Virginia: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest DeSart model

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 49.6% for Clinton, and 50.4% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 50.5% of the vote.

Historically, Virginia has been a swing state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.7% of the two-party vote in Virginia. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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