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Virginia: New Quinnipiac poll shows Trump behind by 12 points

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Quinnipiac released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

Virginia is traditionally a swing state, where the candidates of both major parties have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Quinnipiac poll results
50

Clinton

38

Trump

Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from August 9 to August 16 among 808 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 56.8% for Clinton and 43.2% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

Looking at an average of Virginia polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.9%. This value is 3.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Virginia. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 4.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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