Results of a new poll administered by Vermont Public Radio were released. The poll asked respondents from Vermont for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Vermont Public Radio poll results
According to the results, 39.0% of respondents said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 17.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 11 to July 23 with 637 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 69.6% for Clinton and 30.4% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 5.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is significant.